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Mr. President, I am rising to discuss the budget as presented yesterday
to the U.S. Congress and to the American people by the President
of the United States. Let me begin by saying I think the President
has been courageous. He has stepped forward and addressed some of
the most critical problems that we have as a nation, one of them
being the fact that we are running excessive deficits, another one
being the proper prioritization of our spending in a time of fiscal
restraint. It is appropriate, as the President has proposed, that
we return to a period of fiscal restraint so that we do not end up
passing on to our children massive amounts of debt, and so that we
can assure the international community and our own people that we
are going to live in a fiscally responsible way as a Government.
That is what the President's budget has proposed. I think it is important, before we address the specifics of the
budget, to talk a little bit about the context in which this budget
is sent to us. Remember, when this President took office we were
headed into a fairly significant recession. It was a recession
that had arisen out of the most rapid economic expansion in our
history. It was called a bubble, and was appropriately defined
as a bubble, the Internet bubble of the late 1990s. When that bubble
broke, it was very likely and it would be historically consistent
if we had gone into an extraordinarily deep recession. But the
President of the United States had the foresight at the beginning
of the recession to propose to the Congress, and the Congress supported
it, a fairly significant tax cut which was able to shallow out
the recession. That is the classic approach to addressing a recession,
in trying to move out of recession: cut taxes so you create more
economic activity. You leave more revenues at home with the people,
allow them to spend more of their own money, and as a result you
come out of the recession more quickly. And that is exactly what
happened.
Today we are seeing a robust recovery. We are seeing a very low
jobless rate. I think it is down to 5.2 percent, in fact. Even
though there was a significant revenue reduction, a tax cut in
the first term of this Presidency, we are now seeing revenues growing
at an extremely robust rate: Last year, 9.2 percent, this year
they are going to grow by 6.5 percent, it is projected next year
at 7 percent, and so on into the future. As a result of his economic
policies, we are seeing a recovery.
In addition to being confronted with a recession, he was, of
course, confronted with the fact that the United States was attacked,
attacked mercilessly by evil people. The damage caused by that
attack was not only personal loss, which was dramatic and obviously
horrible, but it was also economic loss, having a significant impact
on our economy and, as a result, causing us in the Federal budget
to specifically have to spend a lot of money we hadn't anticipated
spending fighting the war, and also having an impact on our revenues
as a Federal Government.
The President has been prosecuting this war against terrorism
in an extremely aggressive and appropriate way and the results
are pretty obvious. We have not been attacked, now, for almost
3 years. We invaded Iraq to change a totalitarian, despotic regime,
and we have been successful there. We have seen an extraordinary
event there, the elections which just occurred. Afghanistan is
on the road to democracy. The success in the war on terror cannot
be denied. We are making significant progress, but it is still
a war we need to fight and we need to expend considerable resources
to accomplish that. So there has been this dual pressure put on
our Federal Government: first a recession, and, second, fighting
a war on terror that had not been anticipated when this President
came into office but has been well handled by this President since
he has been in office.
As a result, we now confront some significant fiscal questions
that we must address. Having put in place the tax cut, which has
caused very strong economic recovery and which is starting to show
significant revenue increases, and having pursued a course of fighting
a war that has cost us a great deal of money, we now must make
decisions on how we properly balance our fiscal house in Washington.
The President has suggested we do that essentially by looking at
all functions of the Federal Government and trying to address them
in a comprehensive, thoughtful way, and at the same time in a fiscally
responsible way.
There are two issues we confront in the area of fiscal responsibility.
The first, of course, is the short-term deficit. How do we get
this deficit down? How do we reduce its size so we do not end up
taking bills that we are incurring today and passing those bills
on to our children to pay tomorrow. The President has put forward
a budget that reduces the deficit in half over the next 4 to 5
years. That is an extremely aggressive timetable, but it is one
which is very doable. The President has put forward an aggressive
and effective outline to accomplish that.
The second thing this administration has proposed is to address
the outyear issue, which is even a bigger problem for us as a nation.
This is a function of the huge population in this country called
the baby boom population. We are going to see a massive shift in
the demographics of this country. Beginning in the year 2008, the
baby boom population will start to retire. It is the biggest population
segment of our society, and the pressure that it will put on the
systems that support our retirement, people who are in retirement,
will be dramatic, both in the area of Social Security and in the
area of health care.
As a nation we have had a very strong commitment to senior citizens,
ever since the days of FDR. We can take great pride in the success
of that commitment, and we intend to continue that commitment,
but the whole genius of the Social Security system, and to a large
degree the Medicare and Medicaid system, was the concept it would
always be a pyramid; that there would always be a lot more people
working than would be those taking out of the system; that there
would be many people paying into the system to support individuals
who are on retirement.
In 1950, for example, there were 12 people paying into the Social
Security system for every 1 retired person supported by that system.
Today it is about 3.5 persons paying into the retirement system
for every 1 taking out of that system. But because of the size
of the baby boom generation, beginning in the year 2008 those numbers
change dramatically, and by 2016 there will only be 2 people paying
into the system for every 1 taking out, and we go from a pyramid
to essentially a rectangle and it is simply not supportable in
its present form.
The practical effect of that is that those children who will
be working, our children and our grandchildren whom we want to
see have a better lifestyle, those two people will have to pay
a much higher burden of taxation in order to support that one person
who is retired unless we do something about that, unless we address
that issue.
So the issue is, do we want to pass on to our children a system
that we know will not work, or that we know will put them in a
position where they have to pay so much in taxes that their lifestyle
will be less favorable than ours has been or will we address this
issue today and start to get ready for that retirement boom, that
large demographic shift, and as a result taking the burden off
our children and grandchildren to a certain degree and assuring
them that they also have a retirement system that works?
The President has not only suggested a budget which in the short
term addresses the deficit by reducing it by half over 4 years,
as I mentioned, he has also stepped forward on this critical issue
and suggested we do need to address these major entitlement programs.
And he has made proposals in the area of Social Security that have
been hotly debated here and that will continue, obviously, to be
a subject of considerable consideration.
In this budget he has specifically addressed the issue of entitlement
spending, especially in the area of health care and Medicaid, and
in a number of other areas such as agriculture. It is those entitlement
programs which we as a Congress have an obligation to try to fix
today so that they do not end up bankrupting our children and our
children's children tomorrow.
The importance of this is highlighted by this chart behind me,
the effect of entitlements on the spending of the Federal Government.
If you look at this chart, the orange line is entitlement spending,
the yellow line is defense spending, the red line is nondefense
discretionary spending, and the bright red line is interest.
You can see that in the year 2000, entitlement spending was about
55 percent of the Federal budget. This year it will be about 56
percent. By the year 2015 it will be 64 percent of the Federal
budget. As a result, it will essentially absorb all the revenues
of the Federal budget--all the revenues of the Federal budget--unless
we address these programs today so we have them in order so they
do not put that type of pressure on our Federal budget and on our
children who have to pay the costs of that budget through their
tax burden in the future. That is why reforming Social Security
is so important. It is why this budget is such a positive step,
a step in the right direction toward reforming the way we, as the
Federal Government, operate. That is why I congratulate the President
for it.
What the President has proposed is essentially a budget which,
for lack of a better term, gores everybody's ox. He essentially
has said: Listen, if we are going to get our fiscal house in order,
we can have no sacred cows. Everybody's programs have to be on
the table. We have to look at every program and prioritize in those
programs. Yes, there is a significant increase in defense spending,
but the increase in the defense spending is not as great as it
had been projected it would be. In other words, the President has
looked at the base, the defense spending base, and actually reduced
that. If you don't believe me--you don't have to believe me on
that. All you have to do is listen to some of the folks outside
this building who advocate defense spending for programs they support.
We are already hearing from a number of defense contractors, a
number of people in the activity of supporting the Defense Department,
that their contracts are being impacted because the defense budget
has been reduced from what it was projected to be.
The President has put defense on the table. Obviously, he has
put nondefense discretionary on the table; that is, all the other
spending on the discretionary side in that he has limited the increase
in these accounts to about 1 percent less than the rate of inflation.
He has picked priorities. He has named 150 programs that he is
either willing to reduce or actually eliminate. That is a courageous
step on his part. The Congress doesn't have to stick with those
priorities.
There are some programs I have concerns about, which everybody
else in this Chamber has talked about--this program or that program.
But we have to acknowledge the basic goal of limiting nondiscretionary
to an increase of 1 percent, which is a reasonable goal. And within
that increase, we as a Congress can set the priorities. We don't
have to accept all 150 programs the President sent up here as his
suggestion for places where we cut or where we will reduce programs.
We can pick other programs, but we do have to pick. That is our
responsibility in governance.
We have to be willing to step up to the table and say yes, there
are priorities in times of a tight fiscal process. We have to make
some difficult judgments, and those judgments should be subject
to a limitation--a number on which we all agree. And, in my opinion,
the President has picked a reasonable number, which is about a
1-percent rate of cut in these accounts.
In the entitlement area, the President has also said we have
to slow the rate of growth of entitlements. This chart, as I mentioned,
shows that as being an absolutely critical decision. It is about
time we do.
He, of course, has suggested an entire national debate on the
issue of Social Security. It is not part of this budget. In the
Budget Committee, I don't have much impact on Social Security.
It is outside our purview. But he also has been willing to step
forward on a number of other entitlement programs--specifically
Medicaid, where he has made a suggestion which I think makes a
lot of sense as a goal. He essentially said, Governors, we will
give you an increase that you can use for the purposes of bringing
more kids into the Medicaid Program, which is what our goal should
be under Medicaid, but the increase isn't going to be as great
as you want. However, at the same time, we are going to give you
dramatically more flexibility on how you spend that money.
I don't know a Governor who is worth his or her salt in this
country today who wouldn't be willing to get a little less money
with a lot more flexibility and feel they can do a lot more effective
job of delivering that money and getting services out to people
who need Medicaid.
I think it is a good proposal, the type of proposal we should
embrace and say that is probably going to be very good policy.
In any event, the difficulty of slowing the rate of growth of
Medicaid and giving more flexibility to the Governors is one which
I think we as a Congress can move forward and hopefully can be
part of the budget.
I don't get to make the decisions as Budget chairman. I don't
get to make any decisions. The leader may make decisions, and the
Senator in the chair. But as Budget Committee chairman, I theoretically
put forward a budget--sort of a blueprint, the mark that people
work off of for the rest of the year. The Budget Committee comes
out with top-line numbers. Then it is up to the Finance Committee
to do the mechanics of how that number is going to work.
The President has laid out those specific ideas. But the Finance
Committee is led by some very creative people. Senator Grassley
is one of the most creative people around. He has a talented group
of people who may come up with a different way to approach this.
But we should be able to agree that the rate of growth of those
entitlements should be slowed. The same is true in other entitlement
accounts which the President has addressed. I congratulate him
for that.
There are two issues which have received a fair amount of attention
from the press, and from the naysayers who gather around this Capitol
talking about fiscal discipline, trying to use this basically as
a straw-dog argument. I always ask these folks, Where is your idea?
Where are you going to make your difficult decisions for controlling
spending? You don't usually get that answered. What you usually
get is this: He doesn't include the issue of the war costs; or,
he doesn't account for his tax cuts; or, the tax cuts are too high.
Let us address both of those issues. First, on the war costs,
the war costs should not be in the basic budget. They should be
accounted for, and we are going to account for them. They should
be very visible and transparent, and they will be. But these are
not one-time items. Unfortunately, they are not. They are certainly
two- or three-time items, and they won't be occurring 4 or 5 years
out. This is a 5-year budget. The war will be over, hopefully,
within a year or a year and a half when our need to put a lot of
money into Iraq will drop dramatically. It is looking like that
may be the case after these elections. We don't want to build into
the base of the Defense Department the war costs so that 5 years
from now we are giving the Defense Department all the money they
are spending in Iraq as part of their base, because they are not
going to need it.
This argument that the war costs are not included is a straw
dog. It simply is not a good approach to fiscal accountability.
It is appropriate that we account for it, and we will. It is appropriate
that it be highlighted, and it will be. But it shouldn't be built
into the base of the budget if 3 or 4 years from now we would be
spending a lot of money on defense which was spent on the Iraq
war and it should not be spent any longer on defense; it should
be spent on something else or returned to the taxpayers in tax
cuts, which gets me to the second issue.
You can't have it both ways, but some of our colleagues would
like that. You cannot be opposed to the tax cut 2 years ago and
then say taxes need to go up this year when the numbers show pretty
distinctly two things. One, as I mentioned earlier, because of
the tax cut the recession was shallower, more people got back to
work quicker, more people had money in their pockets to spend sooner,
and as a result the economy recovered faster.
Two, tax revenues are up. They are up dramatically, and they
are projected to continue to go up. They are up by 9.2 percent
last year, 6.5 percent this year, and headed toward 7 percent next
year. They are headed to continue to grow at that type of compounding
for the foreseeable future, which means tax revenues are headed
back to their historical place as a percentage of gross national
product, which is about 7.9 percent; and they are getting there
because we have more economic activity as a result of having put
in place tax laws which create an incentive for capital formation--jobs
and economic activity.
The tax cuts are working in generating more revenue. If you were
to raise taxes now on top of this embryonic economic recovery we
are experiencing, you would flatten the recovery. And as a result,
you would probably be reducing revenue rather than raising revenue
because the economy would start to slow down. It would be the absolute
wrong policy.
I await with great anticipation a budget from the other side
of the aisle. I certainly hope they will put one out this year.
They did not put one out when they were in charge of this place,
and they didn't put one out last year, or the year before. I await
with great anticipation to see the tax increases they will actually
bring forward. Maybe they will be the same taxes or the exact same
policy which we saw from Senator Kerry when he was in charge--not
in charge. I should not say that, but when he was running for President.
His proposal was to raise taxes on the highest income Americans
and then spend the money, the net effect of which he was going
to spend $1 trillion more than he would take in which would have
aggravated the deficit by $1 trillion. That is, of course, a policy
which, if those on the other side of the aisle want to continue
to debate, we look forward to debating.
The bottom line is this: The President has proposed a stringent,
responsible budget which moves us toward reducing the deficit by
half in the next 4 years. That is what we need to do. More importantly,
the President has stepped forward on the key issues of the outyears--specifically
Social Security and entitlement spending--to try to address so
we can assure our children do not end up having to pay so much
in taxes in order to support us in our retirement years when they
cannot live as good and as full of a life as we have had.
I congratulate the President on his budget, and I look forward
to working with this Congress in passing such a budget and moving
toward fiscal responsibility in this country.
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